Le prime anno del administration de Obama

(Languages of this post: Interlingua, English)

“Yes, we can” (ma nos debera attender un pauco). Isto es lo que Obama oblidava a dicer quando ille ganiava nostre election presidential in novembre del anno passate e deveniva le prime presidente afroamerican in le historia del Statos Unite.

“Iste victoria, in se, non es le cambio que nos cercava”, diceva Obama durante le nocte electoral in Chicago. “Illo es solmente le opportunitate pro facer possibile le cambio.” In ille momento le cambios de Obama esseva in le futuro. Nos votava pro le sperantia e pro cambiar le direction del pais post le octo annos del administration de Bush.

Post le prime anno de ille election historic, multe americanos sta a pausar pro le reflexion, e pro multes ex nos le enthusiamso evidente in novembre se ha convertite in scepticismo durante que Obama ha debite confrontar le realitate dur.

“Obama in su campania accentuava le cambio e le sperantia, ma ille nunquam explicava exactemente lo que ille iva a facer, e nunc on a comenciate a comprender que illo significa major interventionismo e le redistribution del ricchessa o impostos elevate”, dice Joseph Uscinski, professor de scientias politic del Universitate de Miami.

Ma un politologo differente, Bruce Gronbeck, insista que “con omne le difficultates que Obama ha debite confrontar a causa del crise economic, ille ha essite assatis succedite.”

Totevia on parla de cambio e sperantia, ma Obama ha minus que un anno pro converter le ideales que ille articulava durante su campania a in programmas serie. Si ille non pote facer isto, forsan le democratas perdera lor controlo del congresso american post le electiones de 2010.

Secundo Gronbeck, le duo problemas plus importante que Obama debera confrontar es le reforma sanitari e le guerra in Afghanistan. Obama nunc sta a re-evaluar le strategia statounitese in iste guerra.

“Ante le electiones de 2010, Obama anque debera haber demonstrate que su programmas contra le crise economic ha producite resultatos”, diceva Greenback. “On ha dicite le septimana passate que le Statos Unite ha resolvite le problema del recession, ma totevia le taxa de disoccupation in le Statos Unite se trova a 10%, e multe americanos comencia a demandar se quando illes trovara lor proxime empleo.”

Obama arrivava al Casa Blanc rumpente con le politica de George W. Bush, e ille mandava un reduction in le numero de truppas in Iraq, comenciava a limitar le influentia del lobbies, e signava un mandato pro clauder Guantanamo e prohiber le uso del tortura.

Ma quasi un anno postea, su bon intentiones sta a collider con le realitate. Le governamento non sape que facer con le prisioneros de Guatanamo. In iste momento ille ha mantenite le option de judicar les in tribunales militar, e il pare impossible que Guantanamo essera claudite le 22 de januario de 2010 como Obama voleva.

In su relationes exterior, Obama ha optate pro un nove diplomatia characterisate per le dialogo e le multilateralismo. Isto ha cambiate le imagine del Statos Unite in le mundo (solmente a causa de isto Obama recipeva le premio Nobel del Pace). Infelicemente Obama non ha potite facer multe progresso in Iran concernente su programma nuclear o in advantiar le processo del pace in le Oriente Proxime. Usque nunc, su major successo international ha essite le accordo con Russia pro reducer le arsenales nuclear del duo paises.

In su programmas domestic, Obama continua a luctar contra le resistentia del congresso american. Su effortios pro producer un programma de reforma sanitari es un constante fonte de confrontation inter democratas e republicanos. Ma totevia il es impossibile negar que Washington es un loco plus aperte, secundo Bruce Gronbeck. “Obama consulta omne le partes implicate, a vices excessivemente”, ille diceva, “lo que non ha facilitate le processo de arrivar a consensos politic pro multes de su programmas”.

Altere problemas es le reforma migratori e le cambio climatic. Obama non ha travaliate multo sur iste problemas a causa del effortios que ille ha debite dedicar al crise economic e le reforma sanitari.

Le popularitate de Obama anque ha registrate un descenso desde que ille arrivava al Casa Blanc. Illo nunc se trova a un acceptabile 55%, un taxa multo reducite del 70% que ille habeva quando su administration comenciava. Forsan a causa de isto le Casa Blanc non ha planos special pro celebrar su victoria electoral.

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“Yes we can” (but we will have to wait a little). This is what Obama forgot to say when he won our presidential election in November last year and became the first African American president in the history of the United States.

“This victory, in itself, is not the change that we were looking for,” said Obama during election night in Chicago. “It is only the opportunity to make change possible.” At that moment Obama’s changes were in the future. We voted for hope and to change the direction of the country after the eight years of the Bush administration.

After the first year of that historic election, many Americans are pausing for reflection, and for many of us the enthusiasm evident in November has become skepticism as Obama has had to confront hard reality.

“Obama in his campaign emphasized hope and change, but he never explained exactly what he was going to do, and now we have begun to understand that it means more interventionism and the redistribution of wealth or higher taxes,” said Joseph Uscinski, professor of political science at the University of Miami.

But a different political scientist, Bruce Gronbeck, insists that “with all the difficulties that Obama has had to confront because of the economic crisis, he has been rather successful.”

People are still speaking of hope, but Obama has less than a year to convert the ideals that he articulated in his campaign into serious programs. If he cannot do this, perhaps the Democrats will lose control of the American congress after the elections of 2010.

According to Gronbeck, the two most important programs that Obama will have to confront are health-care reform and the war in Afghanistan. Obama now is re-evaluating American strategy in this war.

“Before the elections in 2010, Obama will have to demonstrate that his program to fight the economic crisis has produced results,” said Greenback. “It was said last week that the United States has resolved the problem of the recession, but still the rate of unemployment in the United States remains at 10%, and many Americans are starting to wonder when they will get their next job.”

When Obama arrived at the White House, he broke with the policies of George W. Bush, and he ordered a reduction in the number of troops in Iraq, started to limit the influence of the lobbies, and signed an order to close Guantanamo and forbid the use of torture.

But almost a year later, his good intentions are colliding with reality. The government does not know what to do with the Guantanamo prisoners. At this moment he has retained the option of trying them in military tribunals, and it seems impossible that Guantanamo will be closed by January 22 the way Obama wanted.

In his foreign relations, Obama has opted for a new diplomacy characterized by dialogue and multilateralism. This has changed the image of the United States in the world (for this reason alone Obama received the Nobel Peace Prize). Unfortunately, Obama has not been able to make much progress in Iran with regard to its nuclear program or to advance the peace process in the Middle East. Up to now, his greatest international success has been the agreement with Russia to reduce the nuclear arsenals of the two countries.

In his domestic programs, Obama continues to fight against the resistance of the American congress. His efforts to produce a health-care-reform program are a constant source of confrontation between Democrats and Republicans. But still it is impossible to deny that Washington is a more open place, according to Bruce Gronbeck. “Obama consults everyone involved, at times excessively,” he said, “which has not made it easy to arrive at a political consensus for many of his programs.”

Other problems are immigration reform and climate change. Obama has not worked much on these problems because of his efforts in dealing with the economic crisis and health-care reform.

Obama’s popularity has also gone down since his arrival at the White House. It now is at an acceptable 55%, a much lower rate than the 70% that he had when his administration began. Perhaps because of this the White House does not have any special plans for celebrating his election victory.