Climategate

(Languages of this post: Interlingua, English)

“Climategate” es un parola formate con le nove suffixo anglese -gate, que indica un scandalo serie. Iste suffixo nasceva con le parola “Watergate”, que symbolisava omne le scandalos que resultava in le demission de Richard Nixon del presidentia del Statos Unite.

“Climategate” refere a un scandalo que attacca le confiabilitate del scientia que, secundo le major parte del climatologos del mundo, establi que le quantitate de bioxido de carbon in nostre atmosphera se ha augmentate a causa de nostre processos industrial.

“Climategate” originava ante unes pauc septimanas quando appareva in Internet un collection de e-mails de un gruppo de climatologos qui travalia in le Universitate de East Anglia in Anglaterra. Iste documentos revela que unes climataologos de un preeminentia international ha a manipulate le datos de lor investigationes e ha essayate fortemente a disaccreditar climatologos qui non es convencite que le augmentante quantitates de bioxido de carbon in nostre atmosphera es le causa del calefaction global.

Il es ver que un majoritate del scientistas que studia tendentias climatic in nostre atmosphere ha arrivate al conclusion que le climate del mundo sta a cambiar, e illes ha convencite un gruppo de politicos, alicunes del quales es politicamente potente, del veritate de lor conclusiones.

Un minoritate tamen es sceptic. Alicunes crede que datos recente que suggere que le temperatura medie del atmosphera sta a surger pote esser explicate per variationes natural in le radiation solar e que le calefaction global es un phenomeno temporanee. Alteres crede que le evidentia historic indicante que le temperatura del atmosphere sta a surger a un taxa periculose simplemente non es confiabile.

Tal carentias de accordo es commun in le scientias. Illos se reduce e se elimina eventualmente con le accumulation de nove evidentia e de theorias plus raffinate o mesmo con theorias completemente nove. Tal debattos pote persister pro un periodo de decadas. Academicos sovente jecta invectiva le unes al alteres in iste debattos. Ma typicamente isto non significa multo.

Ma le caso del cambio climatic es differente. Si es confiabile le evidentia indicante que le calefaction global es progressive, es causate principalmente per nostre processos industrial, e probabilemente causara cambios disastrose in nostre atmosphera ante le fin del sexulo XXI, nos non ha le tempore pro verificar precisemente si iste evidentia es confiabile. Un tal processo esserea un question de multe annos de nove investigationes. E si le climatologos alarmiste ha ration, un tal demora esserea tragic pro omne le humanitate.

Le difficultate es que systemas economic e climatologic es multo complicate. Illos non es como le mechanica celestial, que involve solmente le interaction del gravitate e del fortia centrifugal, e effortios de construer modelos informatic pro describer iste systemas complicate simplemente non pote includer omne le factores que ha influentia sur lor evolution.

Omne isto non significa necessariemente que le climatologos alarmiste non ha ration. Ma illo vermente significa que si le calefaction global sta a occurrer, nos non pote saper exactemente qual essera le temperatura medie de nostre atmosphere in le anno 2100 e qual essera le nivello medie de nostre oceano mundial in ille anno.

Illo anque significa que nos non pote esser confidente que effortios per le paises industrialisate pro reducer le quantitate de bioxido de carbon in nostre atmosphera habera un influentia significante sur le evolution del climate mundial.

Tristemente, le reduction del bioxido de carbon in nostre atmosphera esserea multo costose e cambiarea multissimo le vitas de omne le inhabitantes human de nostre planeta--con le possibilitate (forsan mesmo le probabilitate!) que omne iste effortios essera completemento inutile.

Sic transit gloria humanitatis!

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“Climategate” is a word formed with the new English suffix –gate, which indicates a serious scandal. This new suffix was born with the word “Watergate,” which symbolized all the scandals that resulted in the resignation of Richard Nixon from the presidency of the United States.

“Climategate” refers to a scandal that attacks the reliability of the science that, according to most of the climatologists of the world, establishes that the quantity of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere has increased because of our industrial processes.

“Climategate” started out a few short weeks ago when there appeared on the Internet a collection of e-mails of a group of climatologists who work at the University of East Anglia in England. These documents reveal that some climatologists of international preeminence have manipulated the data of their investigations and have strongly tried to discredit climatologists who are not convinced that the increasing quantities of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere are the cause of global warming.

It is true that a majority of the scientists who study climatic tendencies in our atmosphere have arrived at the conclusion that the world’s climate is changing, and they have convinced a group of politicians, some of whom are politically powerful, of the truth of their conclusions.

A minority, however, is skeptical. Some believe that recent data that suggest that the average temperature of the atmosphere is going up can be explained by natural variations in solar radiation and that global warming is a temporary phenomenon. Others believe that the historical evidence indicating that the temperature of the atmosphere is going up at a dangerous rate is simply not reliable.

Such lacks of agreement are common in the sciences. They are reduced and eventually eliminated with the accumulation of new evidence and of more refined theories or even by completely new ones. Such debates can persist for a period of decades. Academics often throw invective at one another in these debates. But typically this does not mean much.

But the case of climate change is different. If the evidence indicates that global warming is progressive, is caused principally by our industrial processes, and will probably cause disastrous changes in our atmosphere before the end of the twenty-first century, then we do not have the time to verify precisely if this evidence is reliable. Such a process would be a question of many years of new investigations. And if the alarmist climatologists are right, such a delay would be tragic for all humanity.

The difficulty is that economic and climatologic systems are very complicated. They are not like celestial mechanics, which involves only the interaction of gravity and centrifugal force, and efforts to construct computerized models to describe these complicated systems simply cannot include all the factors that influence their evolution.

All this does not necessarily indicate that the alarmist climatologists are not right. But it really means that if global warming is occurring, we cannot know exactly what will be the average temperature of our atmosphere in the year 2100 and what will be the average sea level of the world’s ocean in that year.

It also means that we cannot be confident that efforts by the industrialized countries to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere will have a significant influence on the evolution of the world’s climate.

Alas, the reduction of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere would be very costly and would greatly change the lives of all the inhabitants of our planet--with the possibility (perhaps even the probability!) that all these efforts will be completely useless.

Sic transit gloria humanitatis!