Friday, January 16, 2009

Le dea Nemesis, nostre planeta, e nostre futuro tragic


(Languages of this post: Interlingua, English)


In le mythologia del grecos classic, Nemesis esseva le dea del vengiantia. Inter le buddhistas, on parla del significantia karmatic del actiones. In terminologia secular, isto vole dicer que actiones bon ha le tendentia de producer resultatos bon. Simultaneemente, actiones mal ha le periculo de producer resultatos mal.

Es isto lo que occurre con nostre planeta? Si nos essaya progredir de speculationes philosophic a evidentia empiric, es evidente que le clima terrestre nunc suffre modificationes con consequentias global.

Io non parla de seismos, que es le producto del separation del continentes que nos cognosce del massive continente cognoscite inter geologos con le nomine Pangea. Le movimentos del continentes es le resulato del mesme fortias subterranee que produce tsunamis e vulcanos e lor eruptiones. Nostre activitates sur le superficie de nostre planeta non pote influentiar iste activitate subterranee, que es completemente isolate de nostre atmosphera.

Cambios assatis recente in nostre atmosphera tamen es un cosa multo differente. Unes scientistas crede que tal cambios es solmente le producto de cyclos natural que non ha cambiate de un maniera significante in le curso de, que nos dice inter cinque o dece seculos. Ma nos non cognosce precisemente le historia de tal cambios proque nos ha disvellopate le technologia pro documentar los assatis recentemente. Ante 100 (cento) o 150 (cento cinquanta) annos, le historia de iste cambios veni de fontes multo imprecise.

Secundo un programma del Nationes Unite pro studiar nostre ambiente planetari, durante le seculo passate le temperatura terrestre ha augmentate inter 0.4 e 0.8 grados Celsius, e le elevation de nostre oceano planetari ha augmentate inter dece e vinti centimetros a causa del expansion de su aqua causate per le calor solar que illo ha absorbite e anque a causa del discongelation de nostre glacie polar, le qual, il pare de plus in plus obvie, es in un processo de acceleration.

Iste conditiones, secundo un crescente numero de scientistas, producera, inter altere cosas, un taxa plus alte de huracanes, un ex le quales tristemente ha destruite un ex nostre citates picturesc de un valor artistic e cultural inestimabile: New Orleans.

Un parte del problema es que le major parte de nos in le Statos Unite non vole comprender le severitate probabile de iste problema. Nostre governamento federal nunc planifica le reconstruction de New Orleans a un costo de inter $200.000.000.000 e $300.000.000.000. Il es multo possibile que inter cinque e dece annos post su reconstruction, un altere huracan, etiam plus sever, lo destruera de un maniera plus definitive.

Isto representa un costo mesmo plus grande que le costo de nostre invasion de Iraq usque nunc, le qual, de un maniera o de un altere probabilemente habera resultatos completemente disastrose. Como Louis XIV e su guerras inutile que ruinava le economia de Francia, le politica exterior del administration de George Bush ha facite de omne nos passageros involuntari in un tren accelerante cuje rails duce a un precipicio gigantic que poterea producer le ruina de non solmente le population de nostre pais ma anque le major parte del population del mundo.

Ma nos crede que nos non pote viver sin nostre automobiles e camiones porcin que consume fluvios de gasolina, e nos non pote imaginar le vita sin nostre consumption de multe productos costose e trivial que rapidemente perde lor valor economic e lor capacitate pro amusar nos, le quales nos sempre vole reimplaciar con nove provisiones de articulos de consumo mesmo plus ridicule e trivial. Tal productos es multo visibile in magazines como WalMart e Nieman Marcus e simile casas de commercio mesmo in Europa. Le capitalismo contemporanee non pote superviver sin iste patronos de consumption continue e frivole pro assecurar que le fluvios de moneta al companias que manufactura e distribue iste merda non se interrumpera.

Le fluxo de iste merda e su contrafluxo de moneta tamen exige energia, i.e. petroleo, un ressource finite cuje production, secundo unes geologos qui es empleatos de Exxon e altere companias de petroleo grandissime, nunc comencia a devenir plus rar e plus difficile a producer.

Intertanto China e India se industrialisa. E lor demanda pro petroleo augmenta como le nostre durante que le production mundial dininuera constantemente con le tempore. Iste combination de circumstantias es explosive e eventualmente potera provocar un guerra inter China e le Statos Unite. China jam ha dicite--ma non "officialmente"--que un guerra con le Statos Unite provocara un responsa nuclear chinese.

China nunc ha le capacitate de destruer al minus dos o tres de nostre citates. Ma nos ha un numero considerabile de submarinos con missiles thermonuclear intercontinental. Solmente un parve fraction de illos esserea sufficiente pro destruer le centros de population plus grande de China, eventualmente occidente grande numeros de americanos post producer tempestas de foco cuje fumo obstruera le luce del sol, destruente le major parte del agricultura mundial e occidente multe del population del mundo con un duple colpo de radioactivitate.

(Ron Cobb, un caricaturista politic californian brillantissime, produceva un caricatura con le titulo "Le humanitate monstrante su superioritate sur le animales". Iste caricatura monstrava un rana sedite qui reguardava con un expression de tristissime surprisa un homine cadaverose que habeva in un mano un interruptor con un buton que ille imprimeva con le altere mano durante que un nube de champignon explodeva ex su cranio!)

Multo facilemente le Statos Unite poterea vider se como iste homine cadaverose e le major parte del resto del mundo como le rana impotente que etiam nunc nos observa durante que nos nunc lentemente invenena le vita de nostre planeta. Nostre nation es responsibile pro 25% (vinti cinque pro cento) del contamination del planeta con solmente 5% (cinque pro cento) de su population human. Le taxa de nostre contamination del planeta es plus alte que omne le contamination causate conjunctemente per Rusia, Japon, India, Germania, le Regno Unite, Corea, e Italia. Le contamination causate per China es plus modeste, solmente 13% (dece tres pro cento) del total. Ma illes apprende enthusiasticamente de nostre exemplo!

Le societates del mundo nunc destrue lente e inexorabilemente su ressources e systemas natural. Ma le major parte del humanitate simplemente non pote contemplar lo que nos face. Le major parte de nos participa allegremente in nostre suicidio collective gradual, cuje taxa de destruction eventualmente accelerara, ben que nos non pote predicer exactemente como e quando. Multes ex nos vole cambiar iste situation, ma quasi omne nos es un parve parte del ingranage intra le machineria de nostre societates, e nostre options pro cambiar los es multo limitate.

Quando nostre destruction collective deveni obvie, le costos potera esser non solmente alitssime, ma probabilemente impagabile. Le alarmas que nostre planeta nos da in iste momento es quasi mute. Quando illos deveni plus ruitose, il es possibile que forsan 90% (novanta pro cento) de nostre population morira durante que nos apprende a superviver (si vermente nos supervivera, lo qual non es inevitabile) como nostre ancestres in le etate de petra.

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The Goddess Nemesis, Our Planet, and Our Tragic Future

In the mythology of the classical Greeks, Nemesis was the goddess of revenge. Among Buddhists, people talk about the karmatic meaning of actions. In secular terminology, this means that good actions have the tendency to produce good results. At the same time, bad actions run the danger of producing bad ones.

Is this what is going on with our planet? If we try to progress from philosophical speculations to empirical evidence, it is evident that the world's climate is now undergoing changes with global consequences.

I am not talking about earthquakes, which are the product of the separation of the continents we know from the massive continent that geologists have named Pangea. The movements of the continents are the results of the same underground forces that produce tsunamis and volcanos and their eruptions. Our activities on the surface of our planet cannot influence these subterranean forces, which are completely isolated from our atmosphere.

Fairly recent changes in our atmosphere, however, are a very different thing. Some scientists believe that such changes are only the product of natural cycles that have not changed significantly for, let's say, between five and ten centuries. But we do not know precisely the history of such changes because we have developed the technology to document them only very recently. Before 100 (one hundred) or 150 (one hundred fifty) years ago, the history of these changes come from sources that are very imprecise.

According to a United Nations program to study our planetary environment, in the past century the temperature of the earth has increased between 0.4 and 0.5 degrees Celsius, and the elevation of our planetary ocean has increased between ten and twenty centimeters because of the expansion of its water resulting from the solar heat that it has absorbed and the melting of our polar ice, which, it seems more and more obvious, is in a process of acceleration.

These conditions, according to a growing number of scientists, will produce, among other things, a higher rate of hurricanes, one of which has sadly destroyed one of our colorful cities with an inestimable artistic and cultural value: New Orleans.

Part of the problem is that most of us in the United States do not want to come to terms with the probable severity of this problem. Our federal government is now planning the reconstruction of New Orleans at a cost of between 200 (two hundred) and 300 (three hundred) billion dollars. It is quite possible that between five and ten years after its reconstruction another hurricane, even more severe, will destroy it in a more definitive way.

This represents a cost even larger than the cost of our invasion of Iraq up to now, which, one way or another, will probably have completely disastrous results. Like Louis XIV and his useless wars that ruined the economy of France, the foreign policy of George Bush’s administration has made all of us unwilling passengers on a train that is speeding up on rails leading to a gigantic cliff that could cause the ruin of not only the population of our country but also most of the population of the rest of the world.

But we believe that we cannot live without our porcine cars and trucks that burn up rivers of gasoline, and we cannot imagine life without many expensive and trivial products that quickly lose their economic value and their capacity to amuse us. Such products are very visible in stores like WalMart and Nieman Marcus and similar places even in Europe. Contemporary capitalism cannot survive without these patterns of continual and frivolous consumption to assure that the rivers of money to the companies that manufacture and distribute this shit will not be interrupted.

The flow of this shit and its counterflow of money, however, requires energy--petroleum in other words, a finite resource whose projection, according to some geologists who work for Exxon and other very large oil companies, is now starting to get rarer and harder to produce.

In the meantime China and India are industrializing. And their demand for petroleum is increasing like ours while world production will go down constantly as time goes on. This combination of circumstances is explosive and could eventually produce a war between China and the United States. China has already said--but not "officially"--that a war with the United States will provoke a nuclear response from China.

China now has the capacity to destroy at least two or three of our cities. But we have a considerable number of nuclear submarines with intercontinental thermonuclear missiles. Only a small fraction of them would be enough to destroy the largest population centers of China, eventually killing large numbers of Americans after producing firestorms whose smoke would block the light of the sun, destroying a large part of world agriculture and killing much of the population of the world with a double blow of radioactivity.

(Ron Cobb, a very brilliant political cartoonist from California, came up with a cartoon with the title "Mankind Showing its Superiority over the Animals." This cartoon showed a frog seated on its hind legs looking with with sad surprise on a cadaverous man who had in one hand a doorbell button that he pressed with his other hand while a mushroom cloud exploded out of the top of his head!)

The United States could be very easily seen as this cadaverous man, and much of the rest of the world could be seen as the powerless frog that even now is looking us over as we slowly continue to poison life on our planet. Our nation is responsible for 25% (twenty-five percent) of the contamination of our planet with only 5% (five percent) of its human population. We are contaminating the earth at a higher rate than Russia, Japan, India Germany, the United Kingdom, Korea, and Italy combined. The contamination caused by China is more modest, only 13% (thirteen percent) of the total. But they are enthusiastically learning from our example!

The societies of the world are now slowly and inexorably destroying its resources and natural systems. But most people simply cannot think about what we are doing. Most of us happily participate in our gradual collective suicide, whose rate of destruction will eventually speed up, though we cannot predict exactly how and when. Many of us want to change this situtaion, but almost all of us are a small part in the assembly of gears inside the machinery of our societies, and our options for changing them are very limited.

When our collective destruction becomes obvious, the costs will be not only incredibly high, but probably unpayable. The alarms that our planet is giving us at this moment are almost completely silent. When they become louder, it is possible that perhaps 90% (ninety percent) of our population will die off as we learn to survive (if indeed we ultimately do survive, which is by no means certain) the way our ancestors did in the stone age.

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