Friday, February 6, 2009

Le devolution del imperio american

(Languages of this post: Interlingua, English)

In Washington iste dies, on parla multo sur le collapso del efficicate del politica international statounitese post nostre guerra frigide con le Union Sovietic, ma generalmente on crede que le Statos Unite con le benediction de Deo essera un superpotentia in le seculo vinti e un e que iste nove epocha historic essera un seculo american tanto como le seculo vinti.

Un tal evaluation assume le continuation de duo circumstantias fundamental.

Le prime es que nulle pais o alliantia de statos ha monstrate un grande determination a opponer le Statos Unite e su politicas exterior actual, e nulle gruppo de statos ha le ressources pro opponer le imperialismo del governamento de Washington.

On dice que le interesses de China es solmente regional e que le Union Europee es troppo dividite pro devenir un potentia militar assatis forte pro opponer le Statos Unite activemente.

On anque dice que le crise demographic in Russia e su su ressources limitate ultra su sector de petroleo e methano assecura que le russos non potera haber un rolo central in le importante affaires international del mundo.

Le secunde circumstantia fundamental que garanti le predominantia mundial del Statos Unite, secundo multes, es que le mundo vermente ha besonio del Statos Unite proque Washington mantene le stabilitate politic e economic in omne le partes del mundo con su grandissime fortias militar.

Ma illes oblida que le romanos e le britannicos anque ha justificate lor imperialismo per insister que illes non persequeva lor proprie interesses economic exclusivemente e que illes habeva un importante rolo humanitari in imponer lor proprie valores cultural superior sur le inhabitantes del territorios que illes controlava.

Tal pompositate es evidente in iste momento in omne le partes del spectro politic american, desde Barack Obama usque Rudolph Giuliani, desde le analysta politic conservative Robert Kagan usque le academico liberal Michael Mandelbaum.

In despecto de lor altere differentias, illes es convencite que omne le mundo se regulara melio con le direction benigne del Statos Unite, sin le qual illo devenirea plus periculose e anarchic e minus prospere, e illes es convencite que le sol menacia serie al hegemonia mundial statounitese es le opposition del populo american mesme.

Ma tal personas suffere del mesme delusiones del classe regente de Britannia ante le Prime Guerra Mundial, qui esseva convencite que lor proprie imperio esseva absolutemente essential al stabilitate del mundo e que lor superioritate militar e cultural assecurava que nemo poterea resister lor hegemonia imperial.

Le historia revela que excessive autoestima national es un importante fortia motrice del cruelitates del imperialismo e anque revela que periodos de stabilitate imperial deveni de plus in plus abbreviate. Le imperio roman durava plus que 700 (septe cento) annos, o plus que un millennio si on include le imperio byzantin. Le imperio britannic durava solmente 300 (tres centos) annos in India e un pauco minus que 100 (cento) annos in le major parte de Africa. E le problemas economic del Statos Unite contemporanee suggere fortemente que nostre carriera como le sol superpotentia del mundo essera multo plus abbreviate.

Multe americanos crede que le historia de imperios plus vetule que le nostre non pote applicar se al Statos Unite, e illes es convencite que nostre predominantia mundial nunquam terminara. Ma le guasto de moneta in nostre guerras in Iraq e Afghanistan fortemente indica que nos es in via de un collapso economic simile al collapso eventual del Union Sovietic post su proprie guerra in Afghanistan.

Le veritate es que sia in le caso del imperios roman, espaniol, o britannic, un economia multo solide bassate principalmente sur le furto esseva essential pro assemblar le fortias militar essential pro mantener le frontieras de lor imperios. E nemo nega que le economia del Statos Unite es multo plus debile que illo esseva post le Secunde Guerra Mundial e que illo devenira de plus in plus debile durante que que nos essaya a posseder e controlar omne le ressources natural de nostre planeta.

Le guerra in Iraq anque ha demonstrate le limites de nostre fortias militar conventional. In un epocha de menacias assymetric con guerrilleros como le vietnameses e le taliban, le application de fortia militar conventional deveni de plus in plus inutile.

Addite a iste problema es le debito international del Statos Unite, que es tremende e continua su expansion. E le international institutiones politic e economic establite per le Statos Unite post le Secunde Guerra Mundial nunc decade exactemente como eventualmente decadeva le institutiones del Congresso de Vienna post le epocha Napoleonic.

Le Americanos pote essayar a persequer lor ambitiones de un nove seculo american, si illes vole. Ma tal sonios imperialistic es solmente delusiones periculose que eventualmente collidera con le realitate e devenira disastrose. Il esserea multo melio si nos poteva evaluar plus clarmente le fortias historic que nos oppone e planificava como viver plus rationalmente in un mundo que deveni de plus in plus decentralisate politicamente.


The Decay of the American Empire

In Washingon these days, people are talking a lot about the collapse of the effectiveness of American foreign policy after our cold war with the Soviet Union, but generally they believe that the United States with the blessing of God will be a superpower in the twenty-first century and that this new historical era will be an American century like the twentieth century.

Such an evaluation assumes the continuation of two fundamental circumstances.

The first one is that no country or alliance of states has shown much determination to oppose the United States and its current foreign policy, and no group of states has the resources to oppose the imperialism of the Washington government.

These people say that the interests of China are only regional and that the European Union is too divided to become a military power strong enough to actively oppose the United States.

They also say that the demographic crisis in Russia and its resources, limited as they are to its petroleum and natural-gas sector, ensure that the Russians will not be able to play a central role in the important international affairs of the world.

The second fundamental circumstance that guarantees world domination by the United States, according to many people, is that the world really needs the United States because Washington maintains political and economic stability in all parts of the world with its incredibly large military forces.

But they forget that the Romans and the British also have justified their imperialism by insisting that they were not pursuing their own economic interests exclusively and that they had an important humanitarian role in imposing their own superior cultural values on the inhabitants of the territories they controlled.

Such pomposity is evident at this moment everywhere in the American political spectrum, from Barack Obama to Rudolph Giulani, from the conservative political analyst Robert Kagan to the liberal academic Michael Mandelbaum.

Despite their other differences, they are convinced that the entire world will be better regulated with the benign leadership of the United States, without which it would become more dangerous and anarchic and less prosperous, and they are convinced that the only serious threat to American world dominance is the opposition of the American people themselves.

But such people suffer from the same delusions of the British ruling class before the First World War, who were convinced that their own empire was absolutely essential to the stability of the world and that their military and cultural superiority assured that nobody would be able to resist their imperial control.

History reveals that excessive national self esteem is an important cause of the cruelties of imperialism and also reveals that periods of imperial stability are becoming shorter and shorter. The Roman empire lasted more than 700 (seven hundred) years, or more than a thousand if the Byzantine Empire is included. The British Empire lasted only 300 (three hundred) years in India and a little less than 100 (one hundred) in most of Africa. And the economic problems of the United States today strongly suggest that our career as the only superpower in the world will be much more abbreviated.

Many Americans believe that the history of older empires than ours cannot be applied to the United States, and they are convinced that our world dominance will never end. But the waste of money on our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan strongly indicate that we are on the way to an economic collapse similar to the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union after its own war in Afghanistan.

The truth is that whether in the case of the Roman, Spanish, or British empires, a very solid economy based largely on theft was essential for assembling the military forces needed to maintain the frontiers of their empires. And no one denies that the economy of the United States is much weaker than it was after the Second World War and that it will become weaker and weaker as we try to possess and control all the natural resources of our planet.

The war in Iraq also has demonstrated the limits of our conventional military forces. In an era of assymetrical threats with guerillas like the Vietnamese and the Taliban, the application of conventional military force becomes more and more useless.

Added to this problem is the international debt of the United States, which is tremendous and continues to expand. And the international political and economic institutions established by the United States after the Second World War are now decaying in the same way the institutions of the Congress of Vienna eventually decayed after the Napoleonic era.

Americans can try to pursue their ambitions of a new American century, if they want. But such imperialistic dreams are only dangerous delusions that will eventually collide with reality and become disastrous. It would be much better if we could more clearly evaluate the historical forces that are opposing us so that we could plan how to live more reasonably in a world that is becoming politically more and more decentralized.

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